The rise and fall of Sunnova. Is home solar dying?

A solar company hit a $3 billion market cap on zero-down financing and government hype — then filed bankruptcy with $10.7 billion in debt.

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By The Numbers

$3B

market cap at peak

$10.7B

debt at bankruptcy

-70%

stock crash in one day

What They Nailed Early

Made solar effortless with zero-down financing and monthly payments cheaper than utility bills. Perfect timing: cheap Chinese panels, 30% federal tax credits, and ultra-low interest rates. Went public at $1.5B valuation with 60,000 customers by 2019.

What Changed

Interest rates spiked in 2022, making both customer financing and corporate debt expensive. Then California slashed solar buyback rates under NEM 3.0 in 2023 — installations collapsed 87% in Sunova's largest market. Demand fell, capital dried up, and the unprofitable growth machine stalled.

Where it Landed

Chapter 11 bankruptcy in June 2025. $10.7 billion in debt. Shareholders wiped out. Founder stepped down after laying off over half the workforce. Part of a broader solar industry collapse including SunPower and major lenders.

The Principles

Ride tailwinds, not just ideas. Cheap panels, tax credits, and low rates made Sunova's growth possible — timing unlocked everything.

Stories raise capital; cash flow sustains it. Investors funded the vision, but when financing dried up, unprofitability became fatal.

Policy dependence is fragile. When your model relies on government incentives and cheap money, both can vanish fast — sometimes simultaneously.

Builder's Takeaway

If you're riding a boom, remember these survival rules:

•

Expect the music to stop — booms always end in busts

•

Build cash flow before capital markets close on you

•

Don't confuse a great market with a sustainable business model

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