Built the first national potato chip brand with direct store delivery. Created a distribution moat — employees stocked shelves daily, ensuring fresh product and prime placement while competitors couldn't match the scale.
What Changed
Parent company PepsiCo pushed shrinkflation too far during inflation, charging more for less while labor conditions deteriorated. Then GLP-1 drugs killed food cravings and MAHA movement turned ultra-processed foods toxic. Cultural tailwinds became headwinds.
Where it Landed
Still massive globally but bleeding US volume. Cutting prices 15% to stem losses. DSD network once a moat now an anchor as trucks run half-empty while healthier brands steal shelf space.
The Principles
1.
Distribution moats can become anchors. When volume drops, fixed costs like daily truck routes don't shrink — your advantage becomes overhead.
2.
Ride tailwinds, plan for reversals. Biology and culture built Lay's for decades, but GLP-1s and health trends flipped the script overnight.
3.
Greed kills trust faster than competition. Shrinkflation during inflation gave Gen Z a villain and healthier brands an opening they'll never close.
Builder's Takeaway
If you're riding cultural tailwinds, remember:
•
Your moat can flip to anchor when demand shifts
•
Pushing pricing too hard creates permission to switch
•
What built you (addictive junk) can become your liability
